Μια φιλική πρόταση από τη Γαλλία σχετικά με πως ν’αποφύγει η Ελλάδα τη χρεωκοπία και την κατάρρευση

Η Ελλάδα έχει μια απλή και ξεκάθαρη επιλογή:

  • Είτε κάνετε πραγματικές μεταρρυθμίσεις στη χώρα σας ώστε να τη μετατρέψετε σε μια μοντέρνα και παραγωγική Ευρωπαϊκή χώρα. Αυτό σημαίνει όχι χρεωκοπία, μεγάλη δημοσιονομική προσαρμογή, βαθιές διαρθρωτικές αλλαγές τα επόμενα 10 χρόνια, και τέρμα στην διαφθορά, φοροδιαφυγή και νεποτισμό. Στο τέλος αυτής της προσπάθειας, η Ελλάδα θα κατέχει τη θέση που της αξίζει στην Ευρώπη: μια ευημερούσα και καλά διοικούμενη χώρα, πλήρως ενταγμένη στην Ευρώπαϊκή οικογένεια. Η προσπάθεια θα είναι οδυνηρή, αλλά με φως και την Ευρώπη στην άκρη του τούνελ.
  • Είτε η Ελλάδα κυρήσσει χρεωκοπία, εγκαταλείπει την Ευρωζώνη, υποφέρει μια άμεση ύφεση της τάξης του 10%, παραμένει παρίας στην Ευρώπη για δεκαετίες, μόνη στην Νοτιοανατολική Ευρώπη, και χωρις Ευρωπαίους φίλους. Αυτή η επιλογή ισοδυναμεί με πτώση χωρίς αλεξίπτωτο και κανέναν να μην μπορεί να αποτρέψει την απότομη προσγείωση!

Το άρθρο έχει συνταχθεί από τον Jacques Delpla. Το πλήρες άρθρο (στα Αγγλικά) εδώ.

Σχετικά με J_Delpla

Conseil d’Analyse Economique, Paris

Δημοσιεύθηκε στην Τράπεζες και χρηματοοικονομικά, Ευρώπη, Μακροοικονομία, Δημόσια οικονομικά. Αποθηκεύστε τον μόνιμο σύνδεσμο.

6 απαντήσεις στο Μια φιλική πρόταση από τη Γαλλία σχετικά με πως ν’αποφύγει η Ελλάδα τη χρεωκοπία και την κατάρρευση

  1. Ο/Η Eoin Bond λέει:

    @ Jacques

    «friendly suggestion»? Its basically just a load of threats. French bully boy tactics as ever, small man syndrome has been an unfortunate tendancy for French public figures for quite some time now.

    Wanna help Greece? Give them 100bn in funding at ECB base rate for the next 10 years, and agree to a 30% haircut on outstanding sovereign debt (exchangeable for 10yr EU-guaranteed 3.50% bonds). The two combined would see a sharp reduction in Greece’s debt servicing cost as well as debt/GDP metrics, whilst giving existing holders of Greek debt a painful haircut which is 25% better than current mtm. In return, Greece agrees to the huge privitisation plan, further improving debt/GDP, as well as massive reforms to fiscal policy and economic structures, which will be fully agreed on before a cent is given to them. The Greeks should work hard for any help they receive, but what you suggest is they work themselves to the bone for no relief whatsoever.

  2. Ο/Η A. Dereklis λέει:

    I am sick and tired of hearing implicit threats about «pariah» and turkisch threat or leaving EURO / EU. The turkish threat for some 40 years and France/Europe did exploit this by selling war hardware to Greece.
    There is no regulation forcing member state to leave EU or Euro. I see it exactly as defaulting a private enterprise, if it has substance it can be restructured and relaunched. Otherwise it’s dead and in this case Greece has values to offer after default.
    I fully understand that default will have heavy implications in european even global economy, but instead of pumping fresh money in black holes, we should she how to get in creating value. Take it or leave it, France has the highest exposure, I believe 80 Bil. vs. 20 Bil. german exposure. Finally it’s the european tax payer paying the bill and Europe’s future is undermined.
    ECB turns to be already the Bad Bank of EU despite!

  3. Ο/Η Jacques DELPLA (from Paris) λέει:

    Reply to A. Dereklis. First, if it were only for French banks, we would have never lent to Greece, but recapitalised French banks instead. Second, the real reason that France, foremost, is helping Greece is that we know that if Greece defaults, she will be forced to leave the EUR very soon. With contation fears for Portugal and Spain. And losses on the ECB. Third, it happens that France and the French see themselves as part of the Mediterranean world, like Greece. So we like, want, to have Greece on board with us (if she wants).
    What you suggest has two black holes. 1) if Greece defaults on her sovereign debt (which you advocate), Greece will be forced to leave the euro, Greece will be cut from any EU financing for decades (France -and the EU-will never lend/give any cent to Greece until she repays official loans we lent); Greece will be a pariah in Europe for decades. You will be left alone, faced with Turkey. Next time Turkey «threatens» one way or the other Greece and Cyprus, we will remain idle and watch (remember than in 1974, after the Cyprus crisis, Greece feared it could be attacked in the North by Turkey; and at the time, France (Giscard d’Estaing) said that any attack on Greece would be an attack on France and Giscard made sure that the message were well received on the other side of the Aegean Sea…
    2) Why would Greece » Radical and rapid change mentality» as you say, if she defaults and devalue? In an environment of high inflation and devaluation, Greece will be back to what she excelled to between 1981-96: postponing problems through inflation and devaluation. With the European anchor lost, Economic populism would reign.
    That may be what the Greek wants. but they should be aware of the consequences.
    Once again, if Greece reforms and does not default, the EU will help (and I think the EU is ready for a lot of help, if the Greeks go for massive reforms -which Papandreou has started. If you default, no EU Help for decades, you will be on your own, with a weak New Drachma cum quasi hyperinflation. Up to you now …

  4. Ο/Η A. Dereklis λέει:

    The french «friendly suggestion» is neither friendly nor suggestion.
    France is on the top of the list of countries exposed to greek debt. They don’t care about greek ability of paying back but rather covering their wrong financial portfolio decisions in the past.
    Greece should / must:
    1. Default with hair cut of around 70 / 80 % and at the same moment assure greek banks liquidity (30 – 40 Bil. €)
    2. Radical and rapid change mentality and reform or better minimize the state involvement and corruption

  5. Ο/Η Christos Koulovatianos λέει:

    Dear Jacques,

    Your article is an enormous contribution and I feel that Greek economists should be thanking you for your input. I do believe that Greece can repay its sovereign debt and that its governments and economic advisers should aim for that at any cost (of servicing an outstanding debt in the meantime until year 2025 or 2030, provided that interest rates can be agreed upon).

    Your disappointment with views by Greek economists that you read here is understandable. It is very difficult to picture that now a critical mass of elected politicians in Greece believe that Greece can default and get away with it. This belief is so, because many Greek citizens behind such politicians have enjoyed enormous privileges so far without effort. Other Greek citizens want to enjoy similar privileges with no effort in the future and they are lobbying for this. This second group sees that the memorandum blocks their way and are blinded by hatred towards successful lobbyists of the past. This hatred blinds many voters and elected politicians both within the governing party and within the opposition: they do not want to see the facts and what you say about the future of Greece after a default. These are the ones who are willing to play Russian roulette, and who want to believe that Greece can still play with fire, simply because they are full of emotions of hatred.

    In order to bring this group of Greeks to a state of not being over-emotional so that they can start reasoning, they first need to see those successful lobbyists with privileges blocked from controlling the parliament. In the previous elections a large part of Greek voters did not go to elections. It was mostly the lobbyists (previously successful and unsuccessful) who voted. The result is, deeply corrupt politicians having majority vote in the Greek parliament, and all of us waiting for them to pass the reforms you and other economists propose. You see, the bailout story broke out after the elections, and it was not part of the elections agenda. This state of the world simply does not convince: most Greek voters voted without the possibility of sovereign-debt default in their heads, so them and most politicians who are now in the parliament think that this story of default is made-up and they are not willing to buy it.

    Many economists posting in this blog simply sense the above described political burden in Greece and are pessimistic. I am optimistic, as long as we understand the political aspect of Greece’s problem and as long as we provide a solution for it. In fact, the timing of solving problems in Greece is this: first, the very immediate problem of having the IMF/EU memorandum broadly followed until year 2013 or 2014; second, blocking the lobbyists and getting Greek citizens who want social fairness and an efficient management of public resources into action; third, implementation of reforms proposed in this blog and elsewhere for the 15-20 years to come.

    The first immediate step of following the EU/IMF memorandum will work out in the usual Greek way (there will be a lot of ridiculous political incidents, but the EU/IMF memorandum will keep going). The second problem, the political one, is least discussed, and this is what is missing from the equation right now. About the third part, ideas for reform, I can assure you: like you, there are splendid advisers both in the Greek government and in the opposition; the missing part is the appropriate political culture behind the legislation and implementation of such reforms.

    I will focus on the political problem in Greece. A solution for Greece must seek a way to block aggressive lobbyists in order to implement a program of reforms. And this blocking of lobbyists needs to be sorted out in the next few years. One way or another, the currently elected Greek government (which carries all pathologies ) is most likely to survive last week’s turbulence and to continue until next election which is in about two years from now. Yet, in two-years time, next elections must have a new element, specific to Greece’s situation: a referendum.

    I am against a hasty referendum, but I am in favor of a well-discussed referendum one or two years down the road, which should take place the same day that next parliamentary elections are to take place. The referendum’s topic will be whether an austerity plan (similar to what you describe, and laid out in detail) is to be followed by any elected government (one elected party or coalition of parties) until a certain date. The alternative to a «yes» is the option that Greece wants to take its chances (leaving the option to parties voted for through parliamentary elections, as it is today).

    Much of the public discussion that must come before such a referendum/elections should use the key ideas from your contribution to this blog. In addition, I trust that there is a constitutional way to make a vote for the referendum compulsory for all holders of Greek passports.

    I do understand that my suggestion for the timing of such a referendum, this of «one-two years» down the road, scares you. It is scary, because you see that time is running out. But the EU/IMF referendum is a well-thought plan, and there is a good possibility that it can be followed.

    Supporting the idea of a referendum along the lines I described above (to be held after a detailed public debate and on the same day with parliamentary elections) is the way Athens and Brussels should follow in order to find a viable long-term solution. First, it is in line with all rules in the EU: the Greek citizens will decide. Second, given the ad-hoc nature of the memorandum and bailout, Brussels can encourage the holding of an ad-hoc referendum which seeks a contract of political and social consensus in Greece.

    Let me emphasize one thing: I am a strong supporter of complying with the EU/IMF memorandum general guidelines right now (and until 2013). On this I am 100% with you. The part I am suggesting is about how we deal with political turbulence in Greece in the near future and in the long run. It is Greek economists, not only political scientists and lawyers who should be taking care of that aspect.

    Again, I must repeat the very deep appreciation I have for the sincere and friendly contribution you have made to us by posting your ideas on this blog. I think that all Greek economists should read and discuss your piece.

    With respect and best wishes,

    Christos

  6. Ο/Η Epanechnikov λέει:

    Ο σύνδεσμος είναι δυστυχώς λανθασμένος (μήνυμα Not Found) . Θα μπορούσατε να παραθέσετε το σωστό σύνδεσμο;

    Ευχαριστώ

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